With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror and August just around the corner, both MLB MVP races are beginning to heat up.
The landscape in both leagues has shifted significantly over the past week, with several contenders making strong pushes while others have seen their cases take a hit.
Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in the American League and National League MVP races.
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Biggest Risers:
Just 10 days ago, Shohei Ohtani appeared to be running away with the National League MVP race, sitting as the overwhelming favorite on the oddsboard. While Pete Crow-Armstrong had the second-best odds, he was still viewed as a big long shot at +750. Fast-forward a week and a half, and the race has tightened dramatically. After a great start to the second half of the season, Crow-Armstrong has surged to +100, making the gap between him and Ohtani razor-thin.
Crow-Armstrong has been one of baseball’s hottest hitters over the past two months. In July, he is batting .306 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, and a .451 on-base percentage. His June was even more impressive, as the 24-year-old had a .381 average with 11 home runs, 20 RBIs, and a .468 OBP. During that stretch, he has raised his season batting average from .242 to .288, emerging as a legitimate threat to Ohtani’s MVP campaign.
Yordan Álvarez continues to separate himself in the American League MVP race, putting together what is shaping up to be a historic season. He ranks third in MLB with a .323 batting average, leads the majors with 34 home runs, and sits second with 78 RBIs, officially putting himself in the Triple Crown conversation.
The Astros slugger has only strengthened his case since the All-Star break. He has raised his batting average from .321 to .323 while recording four multi-hit games, three home runs, and eight RBIs. As a result, his AL MVP odds have climbed over the past 10 days, moving from -165 to -360.
James Wood has quietly put together an outstanding season, ranking fifth in MLB with 30 home runs, sixth with 72 RBIs, and ninth in OPS (.953).
Since the All-Star break, Wood has added two home runs and eight RBIs, helping his NL MVP odds improve from +4000 to +2500. While his production has remained strong, the biggest factor behind his rise on the oddsboard has been Shohei Ohtani’s lingering left knee soreness, which has kept the Dodgers star off the mound and tightened the MVP race.
Biggest Fallers:
On July 18, Ohtani was the overwhelming -1500 favorite to win the NL MVP. Just 10 days later, he remains the slight favorite, but his odds have plummeted to -130, dramatically tightening what once looked like a runaway race.
Since the All-Star break, Ohtani’s batting average has fallen from .293 to .282, and he has yet to hit a home run. However, the biggest reason for his slide has been the lingering soreness in his left knee, which has kept him off the mound. Ohtani has not pitched since July 3, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has emphasized that the team plans to be cautious with his return.
For much of the season, the NL MVP race appeared to be all but over. Now, with Pete Crow-Armstrong surging and Ohtani’s injury concerns, the two-man race has gotten a lot more intriguing.
A week and a half ago, Bobby Witt Jr. had the third-best odds to win MVP at +500. Now, after being placed on the 10-day injured list due to lower back tightness and spasms, his odds have dropped to +3500.
Witt Jr. played in only three games since the ASG, going 0-9 with four strikeouts in that span. No exact return date has been announced yet for the Royals star shortstop.
Odds to Win NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)
Pete Crow-Armstrong: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
James Wood: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Kyle Schwarber: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Odds to Win AL MVP
Yordan Alvarez: -360 (bet $10 to win $12.78 total)
Junior Caminero: +440 (bet $10 to win $54 total)
Ben Rice: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Nick Kurtz: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Bobby Witt Jr.: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
