Relatório de grandes apostas: Futuros da França impactando apostas minúsculas e importantes

For those who bet on World Cup futures odds, whether months ago, pre-tourney or even over the course of the past four-and-a-half weeks, your wagers are finally about to settle up.

That is, as long as your bets included one of the Final Four teams: France, Spain, England and Argentina. 

Countless tickets have already settled as losers, including a boatload on the USA, with bookmakers across the country popping corks last Monday night.

But there are still some notable possible paydays out there, including one high-roller looking to reel in a million dollars on France.

Read on for more on that wager and other interesting World Cup futures bets still alive, along with some of the more noteworthy winners and losers of the past week in World Cup odds.

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Major Wager

Before this 48-team tournament began on June 11, a DraftKings customer was plenty convinced that favorite France was going the distance.

As in, $250,000 convinced. 

The bettor put down a quarter-mill on France +400 to lift the trophy, and a month later, Kylian Mbappé & Co. are in the semifinals, with France sitting as the +150 favorite among the final four teams.

It’s certainly familiar territory for France, which beat Croatia 4-2 in the 2018 World Cup final, then lost a thrilling 3-3 draw vs. Argentina on a penalty-kick shootout in the 2022 final.

France is a modest favorite vs. Spain in the first semifinal, at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday on FOX. If France advances, it’ll likely be a similarly short favorite against either England or Argentina, who meet in the second semifinal at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Those are two big hurdles to clear, to be sure. But if France gets it done, then the bettor pockets $1 million profit, for a total payout of $1.25 million.

Two For The Show

Back in mid-April, as the NBA playoffs were about to commence, Hard Rock Bet took an interesting two-leg futures parlay, for $2,700: Knicks +1600 to win the NBA Finals and France +500 to win the World Cup.

Add those up, and you’ve got parlay odds of +11000 — or in easier-to-digest terms, 110/1.

Keep in mind that, at the time, oddsmakers expected the Celtics to be the East representative in the NBA Finals, even as the No. 2 seed. And the Pistons were the East’s No. 1 seed.

But when Boston stunningly bowed out in the first round vs. Philadelphia, it was a wide-open race, and No. 3 seed New York took full advantage. The Knicks ultimately took down the Spurs in five games in the NBA Finals.

That happened just as the World Cup was getting underway. Now, the bettor is two France wins away from banking $297,000 profit (total payout $299,700).

Something’s Gotta Give

At BetMGM, a customer put $50,000 on England +700 to win the World Cup. Another BetMGM big player put $35,000 on Argentina +800 to win the World Cup.

So one of those two bettors will be disappointed in the wake of Wednesday’s England vs. Argentina semifinal. England is a slim favorite in that match.

If Three Lions end their 60-year World Cup title drought, then that bettor bags $350,000 profit (total payout $400,000). If Argentina wins its second straight World Cup, then that bettor nets $280,000 profit (total payout $315,000).

A big sweat awaits both customers on Wednesday, followed by a likely perspiration-drenched championship match next Sunday.

Parlay Partay

OK, enough about the people betting four/five/six figures. How about something for everyday Joes and Janes?

Sometime late last NFL season, likely ahead of the wild-card playoffs, a Fanatics Sportsbook customer crafted a $50 seven-leg futures parlay.

It was all on soccer, except for one NFL leg: Seahawks +425 to win the Super Bowl, which they eventually did on Feb. 8, beating the Patriots 29-13.

Then, one-by-one, over the next three months, five soccer futures cashed. Now, the ticket just needs Spain to come out on top in World Cup futures odds.

The parlay had huge odds of +122406, or just beyond 1224/1. But the bettor also utilized a 10% profit boost promo, hiking the odds to +134647, just beyond 1346/1.

If Spain can land two more victories, that bettor’s 50 bucks turns into a stunning total of $67,374. 

That’s the kind of ROI all of us can appreciate.

Over at Hard Rock Bet, a customer is on the brink of turning just $10 into $70,741, on a 17-leg parlay no less. The incredible odds on that ticket are a monstrous +707310 — about 7073/1.

Public Service Announcement: 17-leg parlays are not a good investment. So $10 is about the right amount to bet on such lottery-ticket plays.

That said, the bettor is now one leg away from a hefty payday. The bettor correctly picked the leading goalscorer for 16 teams so far.

All that remains is Harry Kane finishing as England’s top goalscorer. But with Jude Bellingham’s huge performances of late — four goals in the past two matches — Bellingham is tied with Kane at six goals.

So the sweat is on for this bettor, in the semifinals and, should England advance, in the championship match.

Prediction Profits and Predicaments

Throughout the World Cup, the biggest money has flowed through prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The quarterfinal round was no different.

Leading the way is an eye-popping $5.14 million trade on Polymarket for the France-Morocco match to finish with three or more goals. The price was 50% — or even money, in betting odds — so the customer was looking to double up by profiting $5.14 million.

Neither team scored in the first half of Thursday’s match, which put this trade on perilous ground. Then Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé found the net in the 60th and 66th minutes, respectively, putting France up 2-0.

That was it, though. So the trader took a $5.1 million bath.

As noted previously during the World Cup, traders are intrigued by Yes/No markets and often take the No.

In Friday’s Spain vs. Belgium match, a Polymarket trader fired $1.3 million on Belgium not to win. Indeed, Belgium lost 2-1.

At a price of 83% — which equates to -488 odds — the trader netted $264,513 profit (total payout $1.566 million).

On Saturday, a Polymarket customer had $1.19 million on Norway not to win vs. England. It was tight, in a 1-1 draw that went to overtime, but Norway ultimately lost 2-1.

That’s a winner, and at a price of 76% (-317), the trader profited $379,764.

At Kalshi, a trader had $164,571 on England to be eliminated vs. Norway. But the English got through to the quarterfinals, so that’s a six-figure loser.

Here’s Hoping You Had It

You don’t have to wager four, five or six figures to get yourself a nice win. For all us normies, just getting 10 bucks down at, say, 10/1 or 20/1 makes for a great day.

There were two such examples in the Norway-England match. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Bellingham was +2000 to score two or more goals.

Two minutes into first-half injury time, Bellingham netted his first, tying the game at one. Then three minutes into overtime, Bellingham struck again with what proved to be the game winner.

Also at DraftKings, Norway’s Andreas Schjelderup was +2000 to score the game’s first goal. Schjelderup delivered on a 36th-minute blast, giving Norway a relatively short-lived 1-0 lead.

If you’d put 10 bucks on either of those, then your wallet would be $200 fatter today. And if you’d gotten a little frisky and bet $100, then you’d have $2,000 profit.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There are countless more notable transactions on World Cup odds. Here are a few more to wrap things up ahead of the semifinals:

• $750,000 USA -130 to advance vs. Belgium. A patriotic bettor at Circa Sports unloaded on America last Monday, hoping to win $576,923. Instead, it was a three-quarters-of-a-million-dollar donation to the house, as the U.S. lost 4-1 in the Round of 16.
• $500,000 Portugal +2.5 goals vs. Spain (Hard Rock Bet). The customer took an alternate spread, which had a big cost at -1000 odds. But Portugal delivered, easily staying within 2.5 goals by losing 1-0 on a goal in the first minute of second-half injury time. The bettor profited $50,000 (total payout $550,000).
• $100,000 Spain +550 to win the World Cup (Hard Rock Bet). If Spain can find two more victories, then the bettor bags $550,000 profit (total payout $650,000).

Todas essas apostas monstruosas apresentam a oportunidade de lembrá-lo: os grandes apostadores têm os meios para fazer essas apostas e, mais ainda, a capacidade de absorver perdas absurdas.

Mantenha o tamanho da sua aposta e as suas expectativas razoáveis. Isso é jogo. Nunca aposte mais do que você pode perder.